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2024-12-13 22:57:17

Japanese manufacturers' confidence index turned negative to the central bank's forecast in December. A short-term survey in Reuters, Japan, found that Japanese manufacturers' business confidence deteriorated further in December due to concerns about US protectionist policies. The survey of 505 large Japanese non-financial enterprises showed that manufacturers' confidence index fell from 5 in November to -1 in December, which was the first time since last February, and the number of pessimists exceeded optimists for the first time in 10 months. The loss of business confidence may cast a shadow over the Bank of Japan's forecast. The Bank of Japan had previously predicted that a steady recovery driven by rising wages and consumption would help inflation reach the 2% target in a sustainable way and justify further interest rate hikes. Many manufacturing industries have reported that business confidence has declined. Among electronic machinery manufacturers, steel and non-ferrous metal manufacturers, pessimists far exceed optimists.More support policies for specialization and innovation are brewing. According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, up to now, China has cultivated a total of 14,600 "little giant" enterprises with specialization and innovation, and more than 140,000 small and medium-sized enterprises with specialization and innovation. Over 80% of the "Little Giant" enterprises are located in strategic emerging industrial chains such as integrated circuits and aerospace, and the number of enterprises in future industry-related fields such as artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy is nearly 5,000. The reporter was informed that the relevant departments will study and formulate guidance on building a mechanism to promote the development and growth of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, issue guidance on cultivating high-quality enterprises, continue to increase support for the cultivation of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and promote the "expansion, quality improvement and strong chain" of specialized and innovative groups. (Economic Information Daily)A new generation of quantum chips has achieved a breakthrough in error correction capability. According to a paper published in Nature magazine on the 10th, Google's latest generation of quantum chips has achieved a breakthrough in error correction capability, that is, the error is suppressed below a critical threshold. This quantum error correction function is considered as a necessary condition to realize the practical application of quantum computing in the future. After the performance of the chip is expanded, it may be able to promote the operation requirements of large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing.


Haitong Securities: In 2025, the retail sales of home appliances terminals are expected to increase in volume and price. Haitong Securities reported in its research report on December 10th that the effect of the trade-in policy is remarkable. With the active actions of the central and local governments, the trade-in policy of home appliances is expected to continue in 2025. We judge that the retail sales of home appliances terminals are expected to increase in volume and price in 2025, and the domestic sales revenue of leading enterprises is expected to achieve steady growth. The average sales price of home appliances will increase significantly under the impetus of trade-in, and the profit margin of home appliance enterprises can be expected to increase. Under the downward trend of interest rates, the dividend yield of household appliances leading enterprises is still attractive. It is recommended that white and black electricity leading enterprises which have obviously benefited from the trade-in policy and have global competitiveness.Citic Jiantou: The demand for promoting the release of opinions on the pipeline network and water renovation in resilient cities is expected to increase. According to the research report of CITIC Jiantou, recently, the general offices of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of New Urban Infrastructure to Create a Resilient City, which clearly stated that it is necessary to build an intelligent and efficient new urban infrastructure system and continuously improve the resilience of urban facilities, management and space. Specifically, the Opinions propose that by 2027, the construction of new urban infrastructure will make significant progress, and the supporting role for the construction of resilient cities will be continuously enhanced, forming a number of experiences and practices that can be replicated and promoted. In addition, the Opinions also proposes the implementation of intelligent municipal infrastructure construction and transformation, and the digital transformation and upgrading and intelligent management of urban water supply, drainage, power supply, gas, heat, fire hydrants (fire cranes), underground utility tunnel and other municipal infrastructure according to local conditions. We believe that in the process of building a resilient city, the demand for urban infrastructure renewal and construction is expected to continue to grow, and related water and sanitation equipment enterprises are expected to benefit.Trump said that individuals or companies that invest more than $1 billion in the United States will get accelerated approval. US President-elect Trump wrote in a post on his social media Truth Social on Tuesday: "Any individual or company that invests more than $1 billion in the United States will get comprehensive and accelerated approval and permission, including but not limited to all environmental approvals." This is the latest sign that Trump intends to relax the supervision of federal agencies and attract more foreign investment during his second term.


Huatai Securities: The policy overweight boosts consumption and is optimistic about the four main lines. Huatai Securities Research Report said that with the continuous efforts of promoting consumption policies, the large consumer sector ushered in the configuration window period and continued to be optimistic about the basic orientation and valuation repair of the consumer sector. It is suggested to pay attention to four main investment lines: 1) the rise of domestic products: the strength and brand power of domestic products in beauty care, home appliances, pets, textiles and clothing are constantly improving, occupying consumers' minds against the trend, and domestic products continue to lead; 2) Emotional consumption: the products on the supply side are continuously iterated, and the goods/services are built as a medium to convey emotional value, and the consumption on the demand side is superimposed to promote the continuous expansion of the tide play /IP economy; 3) New cost performance: The consumption concept of residents is becoming more and more rational, and the quality-price ratio has become the core of consumption decision-making. The new cost performance consumption focusing on "good but not expensive" is expected to continue to grow rapidly; 4) Consumption going to sea: Going to sea has become a necessary topic for consumer enterprises. Under the two-way catalysis of supply and demand, China enterprises are actively participating in global market competition and paying attention to brand/culture/service going to sea.CITIC Securities: The logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in November, China's exports maintained a certain growth rate, exports to emerging markets maintained a high growth rate, and exports of mechanical and electrical products performed brilliantly. In the short term, both CCFI index and SCFI index are on the rise, and the logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. In the long run, if the United States imposes tariffs on China, China's export performance may be dragged down. However, based on the analysis of the import share structure of the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Mexico and other economies, we can see that the current pattern of China's trade diversification has improved compared with the last round of Sino-US trade friction, and the trade between emerging markets and China has become closer and closer. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on China may affect the bilateral trade between China and the United States more, and domestic enterprises going to sea and re-exporting trade may still be effective ways to hedge the impact of US tariffs on China.Huatai Securities: The expected recovery and fundamental stabilization of the real estate market are expected to accelerate under the policy blessing. Huatai Securities Research Report said that on December 9, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting, stressing that it would "implement more active and promising macro policies" and pointed out that it would "stabilize the property market and stock market". Since the end of September, continuous favorable policies have supported fundamental improvement. The central government reiterated its support for real estate at key meetings, which means that there may be more room for policy support next year, and a more relaxed environment is expected to consolidate this improvement trend. The expected repair and fundamental stabilization of the real estate market are expected to accelerate under the blessing of policies. In the follow-up, we should still pay attention to the sustainability of market volume and price recovery and the progress of macro-support policies, purchasing and storage, urban village reconstruction and other policies. Before confirming the bottom of the market, we are more optimistic about housing enterprises with more resources and stable operation in core cities; At the same time, property management companies with resilient performance and stable cash flow are also expected to benefit from the market's stabilization.

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